Loose Ends - Skype and the Great Firewall of China, VON/Virgo Deal, Oz/Nokia Deal

I don't get paid to blog, so when I'm busy with consulting work, I fall behind on the news. There is always interesting stuff going on, and before the week is out, I wanted to quickly draw attention to three stories of note. These are all of interest to me, but it's way too late to post about them. So, for the laggards out there, here are three items you might want to explore further.

1. Skype - China/censorship/privacy - you get the idea. Wow, this is an interesting - but not altogether unsurprising story. Barely a month after the Beijing Olympics, here we go again, with the dark side of state-run media rearing its ugly head.

You don't have to look far for coverage of this story, or think too hard about how insidious all this is, but it's another reminder of how the Internet is impacting our lives. Ultimately, it may be a borderless technology, but as they say, the "great firewall of China" isn't quite onside yet.

I'd start first with Phil Wolff's posting on Skype Journal, then Om Malik, and I'm sure you'll find many others from there. I should also add this is not a new problem, and Skype is not alone in this morass - other IM platforms have had similar issues. RIM too, by the way.

Aside from the coverage you've already seen on this, I wanted to add some local coverage that I thought was really great. It ran in today's Globe & Mail, and talks about how a lab researcher here at the University of Toronto - Nart Villeneuve - uncovered some online trails that led him to all kinds of censorship and monitoring in China with Skype traffic. It's a great read, and am pretty sure will add valuable first-hand insight for anyone following this story. I should add that local colleague Jim Courtney - a regular Skype Journal contributor - picked up on this today, as have others like Om Malik.

I'll end on that triumphant note, as it's great to see some homegrown investigative work getting to the bottom of a truly international issue.

2. Virgo acquires VON. This is a much smaller scale story, but still of interest to many of us in the space. Several of us got wind of this news at the IT Expo a few weeks back, but it's just becoming official now. Andy Abramson had a good wrap on this the other day, and there's not a whole lot more to say about it right now.

Well, there is, but it's end of the week, and I'm kind of done now. That said, I wanted to at least acknowledge the story because it's evident from my recent conversations that most people don't know this has happened. Now you do.

3. Nokia acquires Oz Communications. Yet an even smaller story, but also of interest to me. Everyone knows Nokia and how they're doing lots of cool things with Ovi and just launched their iPhone killer. But most of you don't know Oz - a bit like saying you don't know Jack.

I've followed them for a while, and it's another great Canadian success story. So, add a notch for our win column, which is a nice way to end the week as the weather gets colder and my Red Sox look to keep winning.




Technorati tags: Skype, Jon Arnold, Nart Villeneuve, VON, Oz Communications

Service Provider Views - Is VoIP Dead?

Well, that's what Skype's Jonathan Christensen thinks. My latest Service Provider Views article ran yesterday on TMCnet, and the focus was on his keynote at the ITExpo earlier this month. I thought it was the most interesting presentation given, and is very much in line with what my Service Provider Views column is about.

Of course, it's a provocative question, so you'll just have to read the article yourself to find the answer. And whether you agree or not, I'd love to hear your thoughts.


Technorati tags: Service Provider Views, Jon Arnold, J Arnold & Associates, TMCnet, Skype, VoIP, Jonathan Christensen

Post-Vacation News Roundup - XConnect, Jajah, Mobivox, Fonolo, magicJack

Things always happen when you're on vacation, so I'm just catching up on industry news now. Didn't seem to miss a whole lot while I was gone, but I wanted to note four items that have just hit the market in the past couple of days.

They're all different and probably warrant separate posts, but I have too much new stuff to move on to, and wanted to at least give them some attention. So, in no particular order, here are some items that you should be aware of, if not already through other sources.

Item 1 - XConnect

On Wednesday, XConnect announced some breakthrough news on the peering front. XConnect has developed a peering solution for cable operators in the Netherlands, and as far as I know, this is the first of its kind in the industry. This stems from XConnect's big win back in 2006 to handle all the peering among Dutch cable operators. By routing all this traffic across a common platform, the cable operators in effect create an alternative to the PSTN that could largely bypass the local telcos altogether. This was a great proof point for VoIP and the ability for a commercial peering solution to work on a reasonably large scale.

The big news now is that XConnect (along with partner Kayote Networks) has achieved interoperability with the Nokia Siemens hiQ VoIP platform. This builds nicely on XConnect's 2006 peering win, which led to the development of SIPX, the Dutch SIP Exchange project for cablecos. With Nokia Siemens being so strong in the EU, and cable penetration being 97% in the Netherlands, this news means that cable operators have a pretty complete solution for VoIP. Not only is this great validation for XConnect's vision, but it allows cable operators to offer true end-to-end SIP-based VoIP. This should translate into a superior offering, not just in terms of more affordable service for subscribers, but a better quality experience, especially with high fidelity voice codecs and video telephony.

Item 2 - Jajah and Mobivox

On Wednesday, Jajah actually had two really cool announcements. First is Jajah Babel - wow, this is neat. Released just in time for the Beijing Olympics, this service provides real time translation from English to Mandarin (and vice versa) on the phone. Of course you need to use Jajah's platform, but it's not hard to imagine how popular this is going to be over the next few weeks! Let's not forget that Jajah is now running Yahoo's voice platform, so they've got a pretty large global market at their disposal, and like the Tower of Babel, this will no doubt be the first step towards adding other languages and getting everybody talking to everybody. Just when you thought voice was getting boring.

Jajah also had a second announcement, this one being a partnership with Mobivox, a Canadian company I have followed for ages. This one is a bit smaller scale, but still pretty interesting. Not to confuse you, but there are two stories here. First is Mobivox's move to partner with Jajah to be the platform for their own offerings. Second is Jajah's launch of their Concierge service, which uses Mobivox's voice recognition technology to enable voice-activated telephony. This will be a handy value-added feature for operators using Jajah's platform, especially when targeting mobile users. As the press release notes, states like California now require hands-free calling in the car, so it's easy to see where Concierge will be of value. Sounds like a good partnership to me.

Item 3 - Fonolo

Yesterday, Toronto-based Fonolo announced the release of its API at the ClueCon developer conference in Chicago. The developer community is really the beta audience for Fonolo, but the early reactions - there and just prior to ClueCon have been just great.

Check out this post from The Consumerist for a starting point. Andy Abramson's Fonolo post provides more detail along with links to other industry responses.

If the term "Deep Dialing" is news to you, it won't be after reading this, and I guarantee that you'll get the idea right away. I'm not going to spoil this and tell you here - just read it and see for yourself. Then, go ahead and sign up for the beta yourself. I've been using it a bit, and it's pretty cool. This is a definitely an application everyone has a use for, and I'm pretty sure it will be finding its way into a telco near you, hopefully by early 2009.

Item 4 - magicJack

If you follow my blog, you may recall my post about magicJack back in early June. I provided my candid thoughts after learning about it following a magicJack story I was interviewed for. It has turned out to be one of my most enduring posts, as I'm still getting comments about it - both pro and con.

Anyhow, I smiled broadly when I saw that colleague Thomas Howe put up an even more candid post about magicJack while we were away on vacation. Looks like magicJack is in the midst of a big TV campaign, and Thomas just couldn't believe what he was seeing in their ad the other day. So, if you liked my post, you'll really like his! The Analyst in me can't help but try to be balanced, whereas the Engineer in Thomas sees things more black and white - that is, all problem and no solution. Read 'em both, and tell me what yout think - I'd love to keep this dialog going.


This sure has turned into a long post, but now you're up on all the news that's keeping me up at night.

Disclosure - I am an Advisor to both XConnect and Fonolo, but in all fairness, I'm not the only one out there blogging about these news items.

Technorati tags: Jon Arnold, XConnect, J Arnold & Associates, Jajah,Mobivox, Fonolo, magicJack

Skype-O Killer... que'st que c'est...

I can't seem to face up to the facts,

I'm tense and nervous and I can't relax...

Recognize the lyrics? Of course you do. But if you don't, it's from Psycho Killer, an early tune from one of my fave bands, the Talking Heads.

Like the title of my post? Clever, huh? Starts making even more sense when you start with the lyrics (did you pick up that other subtle Heads innuendo?). Those first two lines say it all for me when it comes to this Skype-killer storyline that started early last week with Om Malik's post.

Big telcos are a bit on edge these days, to say the least, and even though they still have the subscribers, their hold on reality is becoming increasingly tenuous. Fa fa fa fa fa, fa fa fa fahh...

I generally stay away from these big news items as I'm usually way too slow off the mark to comment on a timely enough basis. This time around was no exception, and there sure has been a lot of posting about it over the week. Some of it has been on the positive side, such as Erik Lagerway or Gary Kim, and some of it has dismissed what the telcos are thinking as ridiculous, as with Rich Tehrani.

A review of these posts tells the story, but here's the basic idea. Big telcos like AT&T, British Telecom and Deutsche Telecom are supposedly working together to come up with a common platform of their own to support wireless VoIP. It's a dream for the peering community, because they need the volumes of the incumbents make their exchange platforms economically viable.

Anyhow, this story is more about the intended losers than the winners. The real target is Skype, and if there's any substance to this grand plan, it's pretty strong validation that Skype still matters and is seen as a real threat to the incumbents. They may see Skype as siphoning profitable minutes of their networks, but I see it more about making the pie bigger for everyone. Long term, we all know that voice is going to zero, and the name of the game is connectivity and applications.

Whether this consortium comes together or not, the story raises an underlying issue about the dual-edged nature of Skype. Its early runaway success was about ease of use, which was due in large part to Skype's secret sauce, so to speak. Their technology was - and is - proprietary, making it difficult to copy, but likewise for integrating with other solutions.

Skype has managed to sustain its incredible growth with a proprietary solution while most of the telecom world has moved to adopt SIP, a standards-based protocol that allows for seamless interoperability. As SIP increasingly becomes the de facto protocol for VoIP, once big telcos cross that line and agree to peer their traffic, they will potentially have an answer for Skype.

I'm not saying that's going to happen any time soon, and if you side with Rich's post, you'll be of this mind. Still, even just recognizing this potential should be a wakeup call for the telcos to see that with SIP, they have incredible opportunities to do things that Skype can't do. Don't get me wrong - I'm a big Skype fan, and I'm not trying to create a recipe for their demise - far from it.

Instead, I'm trying to tie two ideas together that I think add something to this storyline. Most of the blog and media coverage about the "Skype killer" has been focused on the big guys ganging up on the newcomer and settling things once and for all. I get that - we all do, for better or for worse.

That's where the Psycho Killer idea kicked in for me. This ganging-up tactic strikes me as being very defensive and destructive - it's what you do when you're tense and nervous and can't relax, right?

To me, facing up to the facts should be more about building on your strengths rather than exploiting the weaknesses of your competitors. In other words, don't worry about trying to squash Skype. Their revenues in the big scheme of things are insignificant, and they really don't own the customer the way telcos do. It's a bit like all the effort some telcos are putting into their efforts to take down Vonage - it's negative energy that won't make you any friends down the line.

Wouldn't it be better to not worry about Skype, and just focus on building on the inherent advantages of what you have today, such as SIP? Skype doesn't have this, and if you can turn it to your advantage, it doesn't matter what Skype does.

Why am I saying all this? Well, because I want to steer you to a nice article written for me by the CEO of SightSpeed for the IP Convergence TV portal, which I'm the Editor of. CEO Peter Csathy prepared a thought leadership piece for our portal about the virtues of SIP and interoperability for applications such as video.

Following an email exchange with Peter the other day, we both realized that since this article was just published about 2 weeks ago, it was very timely for this Skype item. To me, it really embodies what I'm getting at here as a perfect example of how service providers can embrace SIP-based applications to add value for subscribers - regardless of what Skype is doing.

While it's true that Skype can easily match most of what any individual telco can bring to market, what they can't do is federate their offerings with other operators. That's the next big step for carriers to take, and potentially, it could be a Skype-killer. I don't really want to go there, but I will say, they can't even consider taking a step like that without first having a common basis for providing services - and that's what protocols like SIP are all about. In that regard, Peter's article is a tangible example of how carriers should be thinking. They have the solution within their grasp - and they don't have to take Skype out of the picture along the way.

On the other hand, I agree with Ken Camp's view that big telcos have not been very good innovators since the rise of the Internet, so if left to their own devices, it's going to take a huge leap of will and vision to go down the road Peter is advocating. On the other hand, the competitive environment is far more challenging now and the pace of change is simply too fast for telcos to try and catch up on their own and try to out-innovate new players like Skype. SIP is here now, and it seems to me that the sooner the telcos start using these tools to their advantage, the better.

So, thanks for connecting the dots, Peter, and I hope all of you out there give his article a read. And remember where you saw it - exclusively at IP Convergence TV - and we've got lots more thought leadership like this, so come back and spend some time there if this is your cup of tea.

Technorati tags: Skype, Jon Arnold, Om Malik, Rich Tehrani,SIP, SightSpeed, Peter Csathy, Ken Camp, IP Convergence TV

Posted by jonarnold at May 12, 2008 08:52 AM

To repeat from a Skype Journal post I just completed prior to seeing this (and updated upon seeing this):

Sorry, Jon. ... As for SIP as the common denominator for the telcos to make a play, just keep in mind that Skype is one of the world's largest users of SIP -- for its SkypeIn and SkypeOut services. They understand the technology, the protocol and where it can play a role; they can turn up the "volume" when it's appropriate in a "real time conversation" market context. Just because the technology and protocols are there does not a business make. (Skype's GM for Audio and Video was involved in the early evolution of SIP during five years spent at Microsoft. He recalls what the dream was and what today's reality is for SIP.)

http://skypejournal.com/blog/2008/05/whats_next_in_ip_communication.html

Posted by: Jim Courtney at May 14, 2008 10:01 AM

Skype is on a roll - 100 billion minutes and counting...

Skype has recently hit a couple of big milestones, and for all the problems around their marriage with eBay, you have to step back and give them some credit for doing things that have never been done before.

First off is the recent news that Skype has passed the 100 billion minute mark. I don't know about you, but I sure can't count that high, and it's a huge number, especially for a service that's only been around a few years. Anyone know how long it took the PSTN to get this? Of course, that's where the discussion ends, as the telcos have made billions over the years, and for the most part, have had the regulators on their side.

Skype, on the other hand, is making decent money on fantastic volume, but they have a long way to go to become the money maker that telcos have long been. There's more to discuss here, of course, but basically, Skype has had a hard time finding market acceptance of their business model and vision within the eBay fold, and it's anyone's guess as to whether they will stay with eBay, or pass into the hands of someone like Google. Oh, so much to talk about here, but let's move on...

That aside, the legacy of Skype so far has been one of disruption, and making the communications pie bigger. Maybe not more profitable, but bigger. Whether Skype becomes a money-maker or not, there's no turning back the clock. VoIP is here to stay, and the PC-based flavor that Skype has done so well with has changed the way we communicate. And if they do nothing else, that's enough for me. Rich Tehrani adds his thoughts from earlier today here as well.

The second item is equally encouraging, and was posted today on Skype Journal. On Monday, Skype hit the 12 million online user mark for the first time. It may not sound like much, but it's an awful lot of concurrent VoIP calls going over a single platform - way more than anybody else is doing. If there's a better validator out there about VoIP's ability to scale, let's hear about it.

Skype may have its share of challenges, but they have definitely taken telephony where it's never been before, and of course are trying to do the same now with video. You only hit 100 billion once, and it's a great testament to what Niklas and Janus started only a few years ago, and I'd say it's definitely worthy of recognition. And for what it's worth, I've used Skype more today than I have in ages, so in my very small way, I'm helping the cause.

Technorati tags: Skype, Jon Arnold, VoIP, Skype Journal

Skype and MySpace Hookup - Big-Time Community Building

First chance I've had to post about this. Yesterday, Skype announced they were partnering with MySpace, with a Beta version now available.

I'm a long-time Skype user - and fan - but am not yet doing the social networking thing - but soon. So, I can't really comment first hand about MySpace, but clearly, their base of 110 million "active" users is a big pool for Skype to wade into. Perhaps more important is MySpace's 25 million IM users, who should be well-primed to start using Skype for voice and video calling.

It's hard to see how this can't be a good thing for Skype. Financial details have not yet been provided, so I don't know if much cash or stock has traded hands. With Niklas Zennstrom's recent resignation, and Meg Whitman's more recent acknowledgement that eBay overpaid for Skype - with a large subsequent writedown on their investment - this move comes at a good time.

Going back to their early days, Skype talked about building communities and directory services as part of the growth plan. Even though they continue to add features, this really hasn't happened. Since then, others have come along to really define and own the social networking space. Given how quickly this space is moving, and with MySpace being displaced by Facebook as king of the hill, this strikes me as a good move on both sides.

Looking ahead, let's not forget that MySpace is Fox company. With consolidation still being a dominant trend, this partnership could lead to some interesting developments as it unfolds. Could Fox Interactive have further plans to integrate Skype with other media properties? If things go well, would Fox want to take Skype off of eBay's hands? Going a step or two to the right, with all their content, might Fox see this as a stepping stone working more closely with Joost? Just a few thoughts to ponder. But for now, the name of the game is getting MySpace IM users to start making calls with Skype, and I suspect we'll start seeing some strong pickup pretty quickly.

Oh, if you're still with me here, and want to learn more about how Skype and MySpace will actually work together, the ever-present Skype Journal is a good place to start.


Technorati tags: Skype, Jon Arnold, Myspace

Skype Shakeup - Quick Reprise

When I picked up on Andy Abramson's post about Niklas Zennstrom's resignation from Skype yesterday morning, I couldn't find anything else posted out there in the blogosphere or mainstream press.

Of course, as the day went on, that changed big time, and the story got the full attention it deserved from many sources. If you're just jumping into this story, Skype Journal is as good a place as any to start, especially Jim Courtney's insightful running commentary yesterday and today.

I often speak with Business Week about stories like this, but was not reachable when the call came, so I was out of luck. However, I did speak later with Olga Kharif, who wrote a separate post about our chat on the Business Week Tech Beat page, and just thought I'd add that to mix.

There's been lots of talk that an IPO is the magic bullet for Skype, and I think there's a lot of merit to that. Or how about going to Yahoo, fresh off some interesting acquisitions in Zimbra and BlueLithium?

I still like my longshot idea the best - Apple. Just over two years ago, I posted that Apple would be a great fit for Skype - I'd call it Skapple, and together, they could have the ultimate mobile device --- the Skypod. That may not come to pass, but I'll tell you what --- the Google phone - which was cited in that 2005 blog post is just around the corner now, and it sure bears a lot of similarity.



While we're on the topic of heavily troubled VoIP plays, I was interviewed the other day by IT Business Edge about Vonage. Can anybody make a buck in this business?



Technorati tags: Skype, Jon Arnold, Niklas Zennstrom, Andy Abramson, Jim Courtney, Skype Journal, Vonage

Niklas Zennstrom Steps Down From Skype

Got a very full plate today, but just had to share this news item. Andy Abramson has a post this morning about a major management shakeup at Skype. Skype co-founder Niklas Zennstrom has stepped down as CEO, and Skype's President, Henry Gomez is returning to eBay full time.

I'll have to revisit this later today, but for now, Andy's comments provide valuable perspective on what's going on. This is definitely big news for anyone who has been following Skype, and may indicate some major changes coming from eBay.


Technorati tags: Skype, Jon Arnold, Niklas Zennstrom, Andy Abramson

Skype's Outage - Raising Questions About P2P

I was under the weather when all the Skype problems came up last week, and it's been done to death by now. One thing, though, I'd like to draw attention to is the topic of supernodes, which has been picked up by a number of other bloggers. This is a pretty technical aspect of the peer-to-peer architecture, and I really only understand it at a basic level.

However, that's enough to know that it's an important - and proprietary - part of what makes Skype work so efficiently. On the other hand, many believe it has a lot do with why Skype went down last week, and of course, raises all sorts of questions about the P2P model as a serious alternative to conventional telephony.

SightSpeed is a company I've followed for a while, and while their core offerings are similar to Skype - P2P text chat and video - they do not use supernodes in their architecture. The point here is that Skype is not the only - or definitive - model for P2P, and we all know that its reliance on proprietary technology for its secret sauce does not make everyone happy in the Voice 2.0 world.

I'm mentioning them here because their CEO, Peter Csathy, has a good blog, and this morning, he published a guest post from his CTO, Aron Rosenberg. I highly recommend it if you want a better understanding of the pros/cons of supernodes, and in contrast, how SightSpeed relies instead on standards and SIP-based elements for their architecture. Aron also explains the advantages of their model, especially for business/enterprise applications, with the implication being that what happened to Skype would not have happened - and did not happen - to SightSpeed. Read it and tell me what you think. I just want to make sure their voices get heard - it's an important message.


Technorati tags: Skype, Jon Arnold, SightSpeed, Supernodes

Good News for Jajah; Bad News for Skype

Considering how much the paths of Skype and Jajah are crossing lately, there was some interesting news about each today - one good and one bad.

First, the bad news, as this is the one that has received the most attention for obvious reasons. Early this morning, a number of bloggers started commenting about an outage of service for Skype, something that hasn't happened before. As I'm writing now at night, it's still down, so this is a pretty big deal for Skype users.

I've been offline most of the day with a head cold, but will steer you to some of the blog coverage to read more - Tom Keating, Andy Abramson, Skype's Heartbeat webpage, and of course, Phil Wolff's ongoing coverage on Skype Journal.

Not the kind of news Skype users - myself included - want to hear, and of course it raises all kinds of questions about reliability, security, quality control, etc. Let's hope it's not serious, but there are certainly parties out there that revel in news like this.

On the upside, Jajah had some news of interest to my home market. It hasn't been widely reported, and it's not cited yet on Jajah's website, but they issued a press release today announcing the availability of Jajah in Canada. Basically, they've reached the point of recognizing Canada is a good market for them, especially in large urban centers like Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, which have very cosmopolitan populations and lots of overseas calling to friends and family back home.

Canadians could make Jajah calls before, but now they're catering to our market by allowing callers to pay in Canadian currency. That's nice to see, and I'm sure it will help boost usage of their service. This is good for users of the service, but I have to say it adds complexity and even some risk for Jajah. The Canadian dollar has been very strong lately, and has been close to par with the U.S. With the recent stock market woes, our dollar has been plummeting and will probably be volatile for the foreseeable future. In a world where profits are made and lost on pricing increments of less than a penny, Jajah will have to be more mindful of these currency swings when setting rates for Canadian $ payment. That aside, it's good news for Canada - I just hope the word gets out! I haven't seen much evidence of that yet, but I'm sure the message will get out eventually.

I wasn't planning to say much about this news (even though I'm quoted in the press release), but the confluence of events with Skype's outage on the same day was too good to pass up.


Technorati tags: Jajah, Jon Arnold, Skype, Canada

Ooma - a Triumph of Technology or PR?

Yesterday, Ooma had its official launch, and at face value, is being touted as a game-changer. I'll steer you to blog posts that explain the details, but basically this is a device-based solution to give consumers a better VoIP experience, and an alternative to the fledgling pureplays like Vonage and 8x8. I'd include SunRocket in that list, but they're not even fledgling any more.

Let's just say Ooma was met with healthy skepticism from the blogging community, and yesterday morning saw a deluge of emails from the bloggers commenting about Ooma as well as sharing their public posts. Om Malik got the ball rolling first thing yesterday, and it didn't take long for others to chime in with their reactions. As usual, I'm late to the party, and for a number of reasons, I couldn't post about this until now.

Following Om's post, here are some posts that will give you a flavor for how Ooma was received - Thomas Howe, Andy Abramson, Ken Camp, Aswath Rao, and Valleywag. You get the picture.

Being late to comment has its advantages. Interestingly, there has been almost no buzz about this at all today. More on that in a moment.

So, having waded through all the rapid-fire email threads from the blogerati, and reading several blog posts, here are my basic reactions to Ooma's lauch.

1. Generally speaking, I share the reservations (or however else you care to describe their reactions). This all seems well thought out as a technology, and it's a bit of a cross between Vonage and Skype. You get the free calling, but whether you know it or not, you're also part of a peer-to-peer network - much like how Skype works - which is the lynchpin to make all this work. So, it potentially delivers a lot of benefit for the mass market, but there really isn't much new here.

Yes, you save money, but you have to buy a box for $399, and make it the hub of your home phone setup. As others have been saying, with voice getting cheaper by the day, it's hard to see how people will run out and spend $399, especially with SunRocket's exit and Vonage being on the ropes. When the #1 and #2 VoIP pureplays being on shaky ground, you have be a real believer to expect the market to embrace a company with a very catchy name, but nobody's ever heard of. Bottom line - you have to change your habits to use Ooma. Nobody is in the habit of spending this kind of money for a box, and re-doing your home phone setup to make this work. I think that's going to be a very real and formidable hurdle.

I just don't see enough real value-add or innovation here to make all this worthwhile. Sure, you end up keeping your regular landline (which may not be what people want to do), but Ooma isn't reinventing what you can do with telephony, so why go there? I don't think the base cost savings they're focusing on will be enough to change people's behaviors. Listen - I'd love to see Ooma succeed - we all need good news in this space, but I can't see this being a runaway success.


2. It's been done before. Even though I'm late to comment about Ooma, I briefed with their CEO, Andrew Frame, about a month ago. I got a pretty thorough walk-through along with the slide deck, but really couldn't say much until the news came out. During my briefing, the first thing that came to mind was PhoneGnome. We talked about it, and Andrew certainly knows their story. Very similar concept, but with a few more features, and a much higher price. Hmm. For more on that, you're best to hear first from Mr. PhoneGnome, David Beckemeyer, and his take on Ooma. The second thing that came to mind was Jeff Pulver's Free World Dialup (nee Bellster), which has gone through a few lives, but in essence had the same idea years ago.


3. This looks more like a PR coup than a real game-changer. The PR strategy seemed to go exactly to plan. Get all the A-list bloggers excited, and the word will spread from on high to all the blog followers, and then virally to the rest of the technorati. I honestly don't know how many bloggers were actually briefed on Ooma - as opposed to forming their opinions based on what other bloggers were saying. I'm one of the few bloggers out there that are analysts, and I suspect many of those commenting about Ooma were not briefed.

I find it interesting that the blogging community picked up quite nicely on this, but the mainstream media has not. This raises a basic issue for me of the perceived value of bloggers in the media community (which is perhaps by design). That said, most of the bloggers following this are not journalists, and while they're technically very savvy, it's not clear what they're really basing their views on. Regardless, most of what I've read is consistent, and I think on the whole, we're reading this thing about right.

That said, a few more points on this PR thing...

- In most people's minds, Om Malik is at the top of the blogging food chain in this space. Ooma's PR certainly worked for the bloggers. After Om posted yesterday morning, he put the word out to his core group of bloggers, asking us all to comment. I have NEVER seen a request like this get so much response, not even for the iPhone. Talk about being a key influencer - not only did this trigger a wave of posts and email traffic all day long, but there's an endless stream of reader comments on Om's blog post. The cynic in me says that Ooma's PR knows that bloggers just love to give their opinions, and if you get the top guy excited, it just spreads from there, and before you know it, we're all sucked into this vortex of telling the world how smart we are. Looks to me that's exactly what happened, and for better or worse, Ooma sure got their money's worth of PR yesterday with all this free publicity and advice. Of course, blogging cuts both ways - that's what I love about it. This strategy makes you look like a genius if the reviews are positive - but that's not what happened here. So, I'd be very curious to know how this is playing out with Ooma today.

- Aside from the blogging community, Ooma got a review from Walt Mossberg of the Wall Street Journal. In the mainstream business media, that's pretty comparable in my books to getting Om with the bloggers. That's fantastic press for a company nobody has heard of, and provides instant credibility. Of course, big media plays by different rules than the blogs, and Mr. Mossberg's review is pretty neutral. It is not a raving endorsement of Ooma - but not damning either. It's still a win for Ooma, but for those of you keeping score, it's nothing compared to the rave review David Pogue (another A-list mainstream tech writer) gave to GrandCentral, which I have no doubt, helped pave the way for their recent sale to Google. You can read Walt Mossberg's review off of Om's post. Interesting, huh?


4. Woe, Canada. This is a personal note, but also a call to action for bloggers who want to dig into a real story. During my briefing with Ooma, they were keen to set up me with a demo account and to ship me a trial unit. And I was keen to oblige - why not? Well, I told them to check first because I was concerned that the service wouldn't work here. It's really just for the U.S. market, and as things stand, I don't have a unit to try, and I'm pretty certain it won't work here. So, as much as I'd like help Ooma and get first hand experience with it, I don't see this happening.

This is another classic example of a U.S.-centric offering - which is fine, but it is doesn't do me much good. Canada is often an afterthought in world markets, and it's times like this that we feel so second-rate. It's the same thing with SkypeIn. When this service was announced by Niklas Zennstrom here in Toronto at VON Canada back in 2005, I found it incredibly ironic that Canada was not in the group of 8 countries the service would work in. It's basically a 911 issue, and it won't get resolved any time soon, so we don't have SkypeIn here with domestic area codes. Arghhh.

Ok, so what's the real story? Here's my second Canadian angle, and call to action. So, as all the bloggers know, Ooma has raised $27 million, has a high profile management/board team, and a very bold vision. I just can't get over 2 things....

- how much attention they got on Day 1
- how little attention they got on Day 2

Doesn't that worry you just a bit? If this is the kind of Day 1 attention that Ooma gets, I'd love to see what happens when the bloggers get excited about a story with much bigger financial implications, and much more intrigue. This what REALLY gets me about this whole thing. Read on...

Way back in March, I posted about a company called Geosign. They're based in Guelph, Ontario, a tiny city hardly anyone knows about outside of Canada. Well, this company raised an incredible $160 million from a U.S. VC - American Capital Strategies, and this hardly registered a blip anywhere.

How can this be? Sorry, but even by U.S. standards, this is a huge round of funding. Guess what, folks? Ever since this funding, things have gone terribly wrong on a lot of fronts, and the company isn't talking about it. It's not clear if American Capital was conned, but this has the makings of a major example of the blind chasing the blind, and could turn out to be a huge blunder and much worse. I can absolutely guarantee you that if this was an American company, the blogs would be all over it, and you'd be far busier with this than Ooma would ever keep you occupied.

I'm one of a handful of bloggers based in Canada, and there aren't many up here paying attention to Geosign either. I know of people who are, though, and when the story finally unravels - and it has to - you'll understand where I'm coming from.



Technorati tags: Ooma, Jon Arnold, Om Malik, Andy Abramson, Alec Saunders, Thomas Howe, Aswath Rao, Walt Mossberg, PhoneGnome, Free World Dialup, Ken Camp, Geosign

Canadian IP Thought Leaders Series - Don Albert - Skype - Canada Update

With a handful of exceptions, I've been maintaining a weekly podcast schedule for almost two years. Last week I was away at Mitel's conference, and being Canada Day weekend, one thing has led to another, and I'm simply way behind on blog posts. I even planned ahead and did last week's podcast before leaving, but have not been able to post it until now. Best of intentions....

So, without further ado - I spoke with Don Albert about Skype and the state of the nation here in Canada. During a recent press tour, Don was in Toronto, and I had a thorough update with him at eBay Canada's office, which is close by to me. I decided it would be a good idea to follow this up with a podcast and share a more detailed discussion about how Skype is doing in Canada, and that's just what we did a week or so ago.

You can download the podcast here, as well as read more about Don.



Technorati tags: Skype, Jon Arnold, VoIP podcasts, Don Albert

Skype History Made in Fenway Park

Very cool post from fellow blogger and Torontonian, Jim Courtney. As you may know, he's quite the techhie, and writes - very well - for Skype Journal.

Well, Jim is at a Skype Developer's conference in Boston this week, and he took in his first-ever visit to Fenway Park. Just when you thought I was about to sneak in a Red Sox post - which is long overdue, but the way they're tanking tonight, I'm not in the mood - this is very much an IP communications story.

As you'll see in his Skype Journal post yesterday, Jim made history at Fenway Park on Tuesday. The big deal is this - Jim figured out how send a Skype IM over his Blackberry at the conference, and by his estimation, sent the first such message ever from Fenway Park. Very neat. Not quite a "Watson, come here, I need you" moment, but when the annals of Skype are written - and perhaps sold off on eBay... - this may well find its way into the historical timeline chart. Maybe not, but it sure must have felt good doing so.

And guess what? I was supposed to be his Watson on this first-ever event! Yup, I was the first person Jim Skyped to have this IM conversation via his Blackberry, but nooooooooooo, I was too busy to partake. Plan B - not surprisingly, was Alec Saunders - and not surprisingly, Alec was there for Jim, and you can read all about their IM chat on Jim's post. Way to go, Alec! At least Jim kept the thread going in Canada. Would have been really cool if Alec was in Brantford at the time, but Ottawa will do.


Technorati tags: Skype, Jon Arnold, Skype Journal, Jim Courtney, Blackberry, Alec Saunders

My Skype Update with Don Albert

Just trying to tie up some loose ends before the week is out. Was on the road Thursday, and today was packed with calls, so I'm a bit behind on my posts.

I wanted to share with you some highlights from my Skype meeting on Wednesday. Don Albert is Skype's VP and GM for North America, and was here in Toronto as part of a media tour. Skype was nice enough to include me in the mix, and I was happy to come down to meet with Don at eBay Canada's office, which is very close by for me.





Don provided a great overview of all the good things Skype is up to - all of which is public, and I'm just going to share the highlights here.

He updated me on the new features in version 3.2, especially the personalization features and expanded use of video. What I found most interesting are the expanded ways for using PayPal. Integrating Skype with PayPal is certainly one of the ways eBay is looking to make their investment in Skype pay off, so this isn't a surprise. However, it's really neat to see how you can now send funds via PayPal to anyone in your Skype contact list. It seems so obvious, and just think of how appealing this will be to people who want to send money back home to their families. Or sending money to your kids away at college. Great feature.

Don also updated me on how Skype is doing in Canada, and shared some metrics for the first time. That was very helpful, and all I can say is that Skype is pleased with their progress to date up here.

Finally, there was a nice display of Skype-compatible devices - some familiar and some not. I really liked the Philips cordless DECT phone, which allows you to access Skype without being on your PC. It's not available in Canada yet - hopefully later this year. Same for the IPEVO USB Skype phone. It's got a built-in display, so you can scroll through your Skype directory without having to go back to your PC screen or monitor. And then there's the Belkin WiFI phone, with Skype pre-loaded. WiFi access, of course is always a wildcard, but it's branded as being Boingo friendly, although I don't think that does us much good up here. I should also add that Skype has a retail deal now with WalMart, so they're definitely going mainstream - no surprise there!

On the Canadian front, I'm planning to do a podcast soon with Don to talk specifically about the market here, so watch for that in the next few weeks.


Technorati tags: Skype, Jon Arnold, Don Albert

Vonage - Is Peer-to-Peer the Answer?

A confluence of posts and emails today has prompted me to add something to the mix about Vonage's current state. I came across a couple of posts earlier today citing a New York Times article about Vonage. Basically, it's a rundown of alternatives people have for Vonage-type services, both for consumers and small businesses.

Most of these alternatives are first nature to industry watchers, so there's nothing really new there. However, to see Vonage get this type of attention from such a mainstream source says something about where VoIP is on the public agenda, which is great.

More troubling, however, is the underlying message that there's a "Vonage watch" going on out there, and it is the media's obligation to inform the public that alternatives do exist should Vonage somehow meet its demise. I really don't see such a terminal scenario unfolding any time soon - unless Verizon gets dealt a royal straight flush in the courts - and I just don't think it's going to come to that.

Much of the issue here rests on the patent infringement litigation with Verizon, and which way the courts will rule. Vonage has been a yo-yo in regards to whether they have a "workaround" or not, with the latest version being that they do. Regardless of how the trial turns out, it's pretty clear that Vonage will have to come up with a better of doing VoIP that doesn't step on anybody's toes - and the same more or less holds true for all the other pureplay VoIP providers.

It's not known how effective Vonage's workaround is/will be - nor do we know yet whether it's homegrown or based on a third party solution. Lots of mystery here - but intrigue too - which is why people like me keep writing about it.

So, here's the twist to the story, and I think I'm the only one out there making all these connections, and I hope there's something new here for you to consider.

There's a really interesting article - 2 actually - that ran on TMC's site today. It's written by Medhavi Bhatia, the CTO of 3CLogic, and the basic premise is that peer-to-peer solutions - such as theirs - can address Vonage's patent problems, and serve as an effective workaround. I've been following this company for a while, and this could be their moment. Both articles provide some technical insights about what P2P brings, and I suspect that if it could help Vonage, it can probably help a lot of other VoIP pureplays.

Would love to hear your thoughts on this one!



Technorati tags: Vonage, Jon Arnold, Verizon, VoIP, 3CLogic, Peer-to-Peer

Jim Courtney in Support of New Presence

Fellow blogger and colleague Jim Courtney has a very thought provoking post today on Skype Journal, and I've been meaning to post about it all day.

For anyone who has concerns about the intrusiveness of always-on communications - myself included - this is a great read. Jim is a technophile for sure, and has been trialing all kinds of leading edge IP services and apps, so he's got a very good handle on all this.

Through all these experiences, Jim is bringing us around to the virtues of Web 2.0 applications, and more importantly, a more refined approach to Presence to make the always-on world a good thing. On its own, Presence is really more beneficial to the sender than the receiver, but we all know how annoying that is.

Alec Saunders is no stranger to my blog - and I'm sure to many of you - and he has articulated this thinking more extensively, and calls it New Presence. I'll steer you to his blog post about this, and that will really tell the story about how Presence really can be a good thing for both the sender and receiver. Alec's company, Iotum, is a pioneer in this regard, and they are one of the companies that Jim talks about in his post that is bringing this idea to market with applications you can use today.

Andy Abramson added his informed take on Jim's post earlier, and is another good read on these ideas.


Technorati tags: Jim Courtney, Jon Arnold, presence

Point, Joost

Very interesting news today about Viacom making a content deal with Joost, aka The Venice Project. What Niklas Zennstrom and Janus Friis did with music, and then voice, they're now doing with video. I've been following this lately, and today's announcement says a lot about where video is going, and it's not YouTube's way.

Joost's model is very different from YouTube, and if what they say/do is true, they won't have issues about copyright and content length that I think will make all the difference for a successful business model. I'm sure these are the reasons why Viacom couldn't make a deal with YouTube and Google, and may well set a precedent for the types of content YouTube will ultimately be able to attract beyond what users generate themselves. I really don't see much money in the user-generated model, but if anyone can monetize it, it's Google.

Feature length movies and TV programming is another matter altogether. Advertising goes hand-in-hand with these media, and Joost's peer-to-peer architecture seems by far to be the best model for distribution, scale and control.

There's SO much more to talk about here, but I just wanted to get the word out, as I haven't seen it on the blogs yet, other than IP Democracy, which basically shares my view.

As much as I'm a fan of YouTube, I find it hard to bet against Niklas and Janus (and for the record, I do own eBay shares), and with news like this, I'd say point, Joost.

Related sidebar - it's interesting how today we're hearing about how Sirius and XM want/need to merge to survive. It sure didn't take long in that space - maybe Howard Stern should buy them both. I'm sure we'll see similar things unfold with VoIP and video. When the market grows more slowly than expected, customer acquisition costs remain very high, popular and proven alternatives already exist, and you have competing standards for devices, it's not hard to fathom how this can happen. Sounds like a familiar scenario, doesn't it?



Technorati tags: Jon Arnold, Joost, Viacom, Google, YouTube

Skype Journal is Back Online

Just a short note to say that Skype Journal is back online this week, and it's nice to see that a number of bloggers have picked up on this already. SJ mainstay Jim Courtney had the honors of putting up the first post, and fills us in on the changes.

I'm just half-working this week, so I'm not quite up on the news. However, having posted about SJ's absence recently, I feel compelled to close the loop.

Briefly, the new site has a different look and feel. The text is bigger and bolder, with a bright white background, so it's easy to read.

The logo/header - that's another story. It's really quite bland, and hopefully it's a work in progress. The tagline - "Independent News, Views and Service" - what does that mean? For those of us familiar with SJ, we probably don't give it any thought. But if not, I'd say it doesn't make much of an impression. At minimum, I'd have the Skype logo up there, guys. Most people recognize that right away, but a plain sans serif "Skype Journal" header doesn't really grab your attention.

SJ is a labor of love, but the contributors are also open for business and do consulting. You'd never know it from visiting the blog - but maybe they want to keep it that way. I guess that's the "Service" part of the tagline, but wearing my Marketing hat, I'd say most people won't make that connection.

On that note, the site right now is just content and search categories. There's no "About Us" or "Contact Us" info, or even a blogroll, so it's not very engaging beyond reading the posts. Again, maybe this is in the works, or maybe it's not. I hope it is!

Finally, I don't know much about how blog pages are formatted, but who came up with these layout templates? There is SO much wasted real estate here. Basically, only 2/3 of the vertical space is available for the content, which is what really matters. Why devote the other 1/3 to the LONG list of categories that readers can search on? This seems so wasteful, especially since the content within this column only scrolls down the page a little bit. After that, it's just empty space, and from that point on, you have to keep reading all the good stuff that's squished into the left side of the page, while everything on the right is a sea of white. Is it just me? There's gotta be a better way to do this.

All told, it's great to see SJ back, especially with all the management changes going on recently. Hopefully, you'll take my comments in good spirits. SJ is a very important voice in the blogosphere, and to me, the updated website sells SJ a bit short, and could stand to be more engaging.



Technorati tags: Skype Journal, Jon Arnold, Jim Courtney

Where's Skype Journal?

Gee, I thought I was losing steam not posting yesterday and twice last week. To be fair, folks, I try to blog daily through the week, but it doesn't always work that way, especially when I'm trying to hit deadlines and/or around travelling.

Alec Saunders picked up on this last week, but Skype Journal's blog has remained quiet since December 4. That's a decade in blogger years.

Actually, if you read Alec's post, you'll see a comment there from ever-reliable Skype Journal contributor, Jim Courtney, who attributes this to some technical difficulties, and that things should be back up next week with a new hosting provider. Nothing yet, but let's hope so!

So, I'm not adding any news to the story, but here we are a week later and nothing. Am sure things will be back running soon, and my only commment is an observation. Is it just bad timing that this has happens pretty much exactly around the time Skype is going through some heavy turmoil and management changes? You don't have to look far to catch the details - start with Om, for the source.

Back to Alec for a moment. Alec is definitely big on vision, and today published a very thoughtful piece on presence - "New Presence", and how it relates to the "Voice 2.0 Manifesto". Either you're totally into this space... or, you have a lot of reading to do. Definitely worth following if you're into Voice 2.0...


Technorati tags: Skype Journal, Jon Arnold, Alec Saunders

Skype's $29.95 Calling Plan - Disruptive or Quick Money Grab?

This morning, Skype announced the calling plan we've all been waiting for. They have finally come to market with a plan to monetize their P2P voice service, and this is a nice change from the pay-as-you model they've been using since launching SkypeOut/SkypeIn.

Basically, it's an unlimited U.S./Canada plan for SkypeOut - outgoing calls to the PSTN - for an upfront, annual fee of $29.95. Of course, existing calls among Skype users remain free, but this really gives you a reason to use Skype for all your outbound U.S./Canada calls, presuming you have convenient access to Skype. And to sweeten the deal, the offer is 1/2 off if you sign up before January 31. Pretty hard to say no to this one - for basically a dollar a month, I can make all the outgoing calls I want in the U.S. and Canada - works for me.

I should also add that this is only for SkypeOut - outbound PSTN calls. SkypeIn is another thing altogether, where you subscribe to the service and they assign you an inbound phone number so people can call you on Skype from their PSTN connection. That's a bit more complicated, and I think it's fair to say that most people use Skype for outgoing calls, and not inbound.

Personally, SkypeIn is also of secondary interest because they don't yet offer Canadian area codes - that's mainly a 911 issue. So, to do this, I'd probably go with a U.S. area code, which I could live with, but it's not ideal. Mind you, nobody from Toronto would ever call me on SkypeIn, so it wouldn't matter much. I digress.

So, is this a disruptive offer that puts Skype into the big consumer VoIP fishbowl, or are they pricing it low to get as much revenue now to boost short term financial performance to keep eBay shareholders happy? After all, once you set the bar at $29.95 a year, it's going to be hard to raise prices or to get more revenue out of these subscribers. Of course, Opex and marketing costs are pretty low, so the margins will be very high, which is great. I guess it's a question of do you go deep or wide? Looks like they're going wide to get as many subs as possible with a really great offer.

On that basis, they're definitely going head-on against all the voice players, as their pricing plan is way lower than any telco, cableco or broadband-based offering. What Skype is charging for this service on an annual basis is what most plans charge per month. So, what gives?

Well, Skype is not a replacement for your landline, plain and simple. However, if people start shifting more and more minutes to Skype with this new plan, it starts to look a bit more like one, doesn't it? There may be some basic calling features there, but there's no 411, or 911, and it's still best-efforts Internet for the most part, and of course, it's largely PC-based calling. Of course, that's changing too, and that's where things get more interesting. Yesterday, for example, they announced that now over 120 mobile devices support Skype for use with the Windows Mobile software.

They're doing a lot of things to make the pie bigger, and in that regard, I see Skype as more of a disrupter than doing a cash grab. Of course, being a disrupter attracts attention from the disrupted, and if this offer proves wildly successful, you can expect to see new roadblocks and tactics to stall them, much like we saw a variety of well-timed actions from Vongage's competitors just before their IPO. Could 911 become an issue? Sure. Could network operators do things to block or degrade Skype traffic? Maybe. Bottom line is that Skype needs to anticipate these things if they truly want to be on big stage with those from whom they will take traffic.

Finally, I briefed with Don Albert - Skype's North America General Manager - last week, and came away with good sense that this is the beginning of their grand plan to make Skype a truly mainstream offering. With Skype 3.0 out now, and an ever-growing multitude of Skype support on devices beyond the PC, there is a lot more going on here than shifting from free calling to almost-free calling. Look to see a lot more social networking type of applications for Skype, where voice is really just the entry point to a richer platform that will look to take advantage of Skype's community.

I also wanted to add that it was nice to see the press release refer to research from ChangeWave, which showed Skype to be the #1 VoIP service in the U.S. I've been posting about ChangeWave for a while, and I commented about these particular research findings more extensively a couple of weeks ago, and concluded that this research was good news for Skype. Looks like Don Albert thinks so too!


Technorati tags: Skype, Jon Arnold

ChangeWave's Latest VoIP Survey - Good News for Skype and MSOs

I?ve been receiving research from ChangeWave for some time, and they publish a quarterly survey called ?Consumer Home VoIP Trends?.

Their latest survey was done in mid-October, and with a base of 2,640 ChangeWave members, the data is pretty current and substantive. As with my previous postings about ChangeWave, I?m only going to present some high level findings. It?s not my research, and I don?t want to cross any lines here.

First off, the respondents are ChangeWave members, so it?s not truly a Main Street sample. I?d say this audience is probably above average in terms of being tech savvy, which is probably closer to what readers of this blog are. So, here?s what they?re saying at a high level.

Market Penetration
21% are using residential VoIP, and another 13% plan to in the next 12 months. That may be above average for the general population, but I think this says a lot about how the takeup of VoIP continues to be strong, and that landline is going in the other direction.

VoIP Offering Used
So who?s #1? Well, among the 562 ?users?, it?s Skype. Huh??? This is the only real problem I have with their survey. I don?t consider the IM/P2P offerings like Skype to be replacements ? they?re complements. So, I wouldn?t call it a ?service?, but perception is reality, and the reality is that Skype was the most popular response ? 29%. Vonage was #2 at 24%, with ?my cable company? third at 16%.

There?s a lot to digest here. First, Skype is the most popular. I buy that, but I wouldn?t put Skype on the same level as the services people are paying money for (of course some do pay money for Skype Out/In, but you know what I mean). If I were King, and doing this research, I would qualify this, and furthermore ask if they?re using Skype in conjunction with the VoIP service they?re subscribing to. I suspect the majority uses both. Believe me, I?ve offered to help them on this, but nobody is getting back to me?.

Also, consistent with Vonage?s general fall from grace, they were #1 as recently as ChangeWave?s April 2006 survey. In fact, since this survey started in June 2005, Vonage?s share has steadily fallen from 36% to where it is now at 24%.

So, why lump all the cablecos into one category? We all know they?re taking over this market now, and I really wish they would break out the providers out by name. That said, it?s useful to see that collectively, cable has 16% of this sample. I suspect the real market share number is higher - remember, Skype has 29% of this sample, which I don?t get at all.

Finally, I wanted to mention that new names are showing up on this list that weren?t there before, like Jajah, AIM Phoneline and GoogleTalk. That?s a good sign. Hopefully ChangeWave knows what to do with this, as future waves need to refine this question to properly reflect the various types of VoIP offerings out there now.

Satisfaction with Service
Overall, people like their service ? 90% are either ?somewhat? or ?very? satisfied. That?s a really good sign, and it holds up pretty much across the board. That said, it?s not surprising that satisfaction with Vonage is a tad lower than the others.

The same holds true when asking about the likeliness of changing services in the next 6 months. Overall, 16% are either ?very? or ?somewhat? likely. Cable users are well below this, and Vonage is notably above. Again, no surprise here, and the data is likely consistent with what more exhaustive studies are finding.

Who ya gonna call?
Lastly, I wanted to cite the big question ? for those considering switching, who would they go to? Here, the response base is only 88, so you need to be more careful with the data. These are current VoIP subscribers who are ?very? or ?somewhat? likely to switch in the next 6 months.

With 42% saying ?don?t know?, the market seems pretty open for stealing away VoIP subscribers. Cable leads the pack at 11%, with Skype close behind at 9%, and then Vonage at 7%. These are whom you?d expect to see, and no real surprises there.

There are several others mentioned on the list, all much less frequently, and all pretty familiar ? except one. Google Talk. Yup ? 5% mentioned them. That?s probably the standout data point of this whole survey for me. I know the base is small, but to see Google Talk right up there at Vonage?s heels tells me they?re on a lot of people?s radars, and that?s not good news for everyone else on this list.

Finally, there is another key segment to consider ? those not using VoIP, but are considering doing so in the next 12 months. For this sample, the base is 332. This really says a lot about market sentiment for the next wave of residential VoIP adopters.

Number 1? Skype ? 20% said that?s who they would mostly likely go to. Hmmm. It sure is interesting to see what people?s perceptions are ? Skype is who they think about first ? ahead of the rest. Am not sure if that?s really money in the bank for Skype, but no doubt they?d be happy to hear it. Even more interesting ? less than a year ago ? December 2005 ? only 3% of the sample said this. Wow.

Who?s #2? The cablecos ? 17%. Again, they only report aggregate data for this group, so we don?t know which MSOs they?re talking about. Regardless, as a category, cable VoIP comes through very nicely here.

Where?s Vonage? Thought you?d never ask. They?re #3 at 15%. Back in April ? just before the IPO ? they were #1 at 21%, so things have changed.

Something else to watch for ? just behind Vonage on this list are the RBOCs ? VoiceWing at 8% and CallVantage at 4%. So, they?ve got heavy competition both ahead of them and behind. Not a fun place to be, for sure.

Just one more thing to build on from this point, which I think says a lot about the direction the 3 main players in this survey are going ? Vonage, Skype and the MSOs. Let?s look at the net results when you consider both churn and adds for each.

Vonage ? 22% of subscribers are ?very? or ?somewhat? likely to switch. That itself is a huge finding. Hello - 1 in 5 Vonage customers are at risk, Mr. Citron.
Conversely, 15% of new subscribers will most likely go with Vonage. That?s a net loss of 7%.

Skype ? only 12% are at risk, but 20% will come to them. So, they would have a net gain of 8%.

Cablecos ? same story here. Only 9% at risk, but they?ll get 17% of new subs. Again, that?s an 8% gain.

I know it?s a relatively small and focused survey sample. However, I think these results are pretty indicative of where the market is going, even if the data is predictive rather than behavioral. I don?t think it?s a stretch to say that things are getting harder, not easier for Vonage, and it?s very clear to me that the same is true for the overall competitive landscape.

To wrap, I'd like to thank ChangeWave for putting this research together, and I don't think I've gone too far sharing these high level findings with you here.

Comments???

Technorati tags: Changewave, Jon Arnold, VoIP, Vonage, Skype

TalkPlus - Friend or Foe for Skype?

Very interesting post today from colleague Phil Wolff at Skype Journal.

If you're a fan of either TalkPlus or Skype, you'll want to read this, and more importantly check out the video clip. Phil has posted a raw clip of TalkPlus CEO Jeff Black doing a live demo of him calling into Skype's echo123 number on the fly using TalkPlus.

The details are better left to Skype-o-philes like Phil to explain, but basically, Jeff demonstrates how TalkPlus subscribers can access Skype and make SkypeOut calls from their mobile phone. Remember, you don't dial phone numbers to call other Skype users. With TalkPlus, Jeff shows how a 10 digit phone number is generated on the fly, allowing you to make this call on your cell phone.

Jeff has talked about how TalkPlus has reverse engineered Skype, and if this allows TalkPlus subscribers to access the Skype network directly, without going through as a Skype subscriber, then you really don't need a SkypeIn number. You just use your existing number and interface with Skype via TalkPlus.

Am still getting my head around this a bit, but if it all holds water - and if it scales - this could put a crimp in Skype's revenue model. I don't that's what Jeff has in mind, unless there's another form of reverse engineering going on - such as becoming an acquisition target for Skype/eBay. Or how about the other big fish, like Google, Yahoo, etc.? Lots of scenarios to speculate about there.

So, kudos to Phil Wolff for this great post, but now for the hard question. Phil - you taped this clip 2 weeks ago, and TalkPlus is just getting their story ramped up this week. Why post today and not 2 weeks ago, unless you were under embargo? It's not clear to me from your post - under the Skype Journal mantle -if this is welcome news or not. Your post is totally objective - 100% neutral, and I just can't tell. What's your take? I'd say it's the former...

Quick hat tip to Alec Saunders, who posted on this earlier today.


Technorati tags: TalkPlus, Jon Arnold, Skype, Skype Journal, Phil Wolff

StockIM - Getting Attention in Barron's

A few weeks back, I posted about StockIM, and how J Arnold & Associates has an affiliation with them.

It sure looks like they're getting some traction now, which is great to see. Last week, they were cited by Barron's, and they just passed this along to me. Thought you might find it interesting, especially in the sense that IM-based platforms look to be finding a home in the investment community, esp among small cap traders. It's my understanding that StockIM is approaching 1 million hits a month now, and I don't mind getting that kind of exposure at all...



Technorati tags: Barron's, Jon Arnold, StockIM, J Arnold & Associates

Skype Blocking/San Jose U. Story Addendum

I haven't been commenting directly on this story, where San Jose State University had been pushing to block on Skype on campus, and by extension, other broadband-based applications stood to be at risk. On that note, I mentioned about how this could include video calling services such as SightSpeed, an emerging market leader that I have been following.

This comment happened be part of a post where I was lauding SightSpeed's recent success as being chosen the top video calling app by PC Magazine. That issue is now online, and you can read more about it here.

I'm revisiting this because some clarity is needed on the SJSU issue. I won't get into the technical details - that's not my thing - but in short, not all forms of peer-to-peer are based on the Skype model. Others can explain this better than me, but I wanted to share some commentary on this from Peter Csathy, SightSpeed's CEO. In true Web 2.0 fashion, Peter walks the talk, and provides a nice update on things via a video message.

Aside from the fact that this clip demonstrates SightSpeed's quality very nicely, about halfway into the message, Peter provides a short explanation of how SightSpeed does not use super nodes the way Skype does, which makes theirs a purer, more direct form of P2P. One benefit here is that SightSpeed will not have the firewall blocking problems that Skype runs up against in large institutions. Since SightSpeed does voice as well as video, it stands to be a better enterprise solution. By all means, watch the clip - it's just a few minutes, and you'll see for yourself.

While I've got you, SightSpeed is really on a roll. Check out this posting from Andy Abramson that just broke late last night. MTV is now using SightSpeed on its Total Request Live program. This demographic will totally get what SightSpeed is all about, and it's an ideal place to showcase the technology. This is a great company to watch, folks.


Technorati tags: SightSpeed, Jon Arnold, Andy Abramson

Canadian IP Thought Leaders Series - Jim Courtney on VoIP and the Skype/Google News

On this week's podcast on the Pulvermedia Podcast Network, I spoke with Jim Courtney, industry colleague and fellow blogger. Jim wears a few hats, mainly as an industry consultant, and an Associate Editor of the widely-read blog, Skype Journal.

Jim has a long history in tech/telecom, and offered his perspective on the trends he's seeing here in Canada's IP communications market. Also, having posted earlier in the day about the Google/Skype news on Skype Journal, the podcast was a timely opportunity to explore the implications of that development more deeply.

You can download the podcast here, as well as read more about Jim's background.

Technorati tags: Jim Courtney, Jon Arnold, Skype Journal, VoIP Podcasts

Rebtel - the Next Skype?

Leave it to the Scandinavians to yet again come up with the next best thing. I've been away from the blogs for a few days, and just came across Jeff Pulver's entries from earlier this week about his trip to Sweden. On his Tuesday post, Jeff reveals the reason for his trip - to visit Rebtel, a Stockholm-based startup that is doing for mobile VoIP what Skype has done for the PC.

Jeff does a great job explaining what Rebtel is doing and why they could become a real disruptor in the mobile market - he's definitely a fan now. There are an infinite variety of twists for VoIP calling plans, and nobody has found the holy grail yet, and Rebtel is another step along athe way.

In a nutshell, here's how it works. Like Skype, or any IM platform, you first need to be in the club, so to speak. So, once you have your Rebtel buddies, it just costs $1 a week to have free mobile-to-mobile calling. Say I'm here in Toronto, and I have a Rebtel friend in Vancouver. The $1/week fee gives you access to local phone numbers, so in this case, my Vancouver friend gets a Toronto-based phone number, and once that's in place, we talk free, as if it was a local call. There's more to it than that, but I think you get the idea. Currently, Rebtel works in 30 countries, and of course the economics are much more compelling when making calls from country-to-country.

I'm commenting on Jeff's post mainly because it's the first blog piece I've seen about them. I learned about Rebtel recently via a consulting project, but there was nothing I could really post about. They since slid off my radar, and until now, I haven't seen anything out there about them. So it was great to see Jeff's post, especially since he's sharing his first hand impressions. I can't think of too many other people who will pick up and go to Sweden just to check out a new company. Jeff may be pretty focused on video these days, but his heart is still in voice!




Technorati tags: Rebtel, Jon Arnold, Skype, Jeff Pulver, VoIP

Canadian IP Thought Leaders Podcast - Stephane Marceau, Voxlib

This week's podcast was with Stephane Marceau, President and CEO of Voxlib, a Montreal-based startup. Voxlib is another up and coming vendor focused on bridging mobility with PC-based communications.

My previous podcast was with EQO Communications, and both companies are honing in on Skype as a key voice application to demonstrate their technologies. Stephane talked about the benefits for both operators and subscribers, and explained how they are using voice recognition as a key enabler for the seamless handoff of calls from one device to another, as well as from one network to another. Pretty neat stuff, and worth a listen. You can download the podcast here, as well as learn more about Voxlib.

Technorati tags: podcasts, VoIP, Jon Arnold, Skype

Canadian IP Thought Leaders Podcast - Bill Tam on Bringing Mobililty to IM

The most recent segment of my podcast series was with Bill Tam. He's the CEO of EQO Communications, one of the cool startups I've been coming across at some recent events.

EQO has come up with a way to integrate Skype with your mobile phone and take your buddy list to go. It's pretty neat, and I can see this being a lot of fun for the mobile set. On the pod we talked about the attraction of mobile IM, and who it will hold appeal for. You can download the pod here, and find more about EQO.

Skype - Free Outbound Calls - Good Deal Gets Better

Skype's move to offer free SkypeOut calls for North America is pretty compelling, and is a great way to make their platform more sticky, and to rachet up the adoption of their PSTN connectivity service. Most of their SkypeOut takeup has been outside North America, so this is an effective way to get this market more engaged on this level. To me, even though no money is really changing hands, SkypeOut users are more valuable than Skype-to-Skype users. They may be giving up some short term revenues, but I'm sure the hope is once they revert to a paid model, SkypeOut users won't balk too much. It's all about changing behaviors and keeping your customers with you. There's just so much pressure and competition from the other IM platforms, esp Yahoo/AT&T and AIM Phoneline that this is just the cost of doing business.

This story got some good press coverage, and both Business Week and Light Reading were nice enough to cite me - here and here. It's nice to see as I'm in the thick of the Mesh conference now here in Toronto.

Note - the link to the LR article may not work. If so, just go to their site - it will be there in today's stories.

Sidebar to the LR article and the writer, Mark Sullivan. Mark reports that both Andy Abramson and I are at VON Europe in Stockholm. Andy might be, but I'm here in Toronto - I'd love to be there, but not today!

Skype Brings the Secret Sauce In-House

Today, Skype announced their acquisition of Sonorit and Camino Networks for $27 million. Not earth-shattering news, but Skype watchers are anxiously looking for clues as to how they're going to spend eBay's money and build themselves up into something that reflects what they themselves were acquired for.

The press release is not up on Skype's home page yet, but it's included in Phil Wolff's informative posting from earlier today on Skype Journal.

In short, much of Skype's initial success was due to the voice processing technology they licensed from Global IP Sound. Some key people left GIPS last year and formed Sonorit, which has developed their own voice processing technology. GIPS has been contesting this in a lawsuit over unfair competitive practices, but that doesn't seem to be moving very quickly.

Skype's acquisition of Sonorit comes off as a shrewd move in that they now can keep their secret sauce in-house - presuming, of course, that Sonorit performs as well or better than GIPS. Buying Sonorit is a clear signal to me that Skype recognizes the value of this technology, and deems it too important to share with others. GIPS has a healthy roster of blue chip clients, and as the Googles of the world start to horn in on Skype's turf, it's going to become increasingly important for Skype to protect its advantage, which in large part is its voice quality.

Why leave this to chance and let Google, et al license the same stuff as you from GIPS? Or worse yet, let one of them acquire Sonorit/Camino themselves. So, looking at it that way, Skype is playing it smart, and really not breaking the bank along the way.

I'm late to the game posting about this for good reason. As a shareholder, I'm obliged to stay quiet until this becomes a public story. Even then, I have reservations, but given how widely the story was covered, I'm hardly speaking out of school here. Fellow blogger Erik Lagerway is in the same position as me, and commented to similar effect on his posting today.

Erik's post also makes references to two earlier posts, both worth reading for followers of this story - uberbloggers Andy Abramson and Alec Saunders.

Skype Allegations - Ripple Effects

This isn't breaking news, but I feel compelled to share it anyway. My PC was out with a virus for a couple of days, am I'm behind on everything, including blogging. That said...

The blogging community knows full well that Andy Abramson was first to market with this story last weekend. On Tuesday, James Enck noted that ZD NET UK was the first major news pub to "break" the story WITHOUT properly citing/crediting Andy as the source - which we all know to be true. You knew it would happen sooner or later. I empathize with blogger Russell Shaw, who writes for Ziff Davis, but would not have done such a thing.

The Skype story itself may be time sensitive, but the above issue is not, and maybe it will go down in the Web 2.0 annals as the "Abramson Precedent". I've always had mixed feelings about journalists who blog, and this scenario with ZD NET has crossed a line. In the blogger world, most of us know the credibility behind most other bloggers. It's a given that we would only post items of substance, or least will cite our sources.

However, ZD NET did not extend the courtesy and tenents of professional journalism to Andy in this case, as if a blog is not deemed to be a credible source. To me, that's crossing the line. It doesn't take much to ascertain that Andy's credentials are A-1, and he should have been accorded credit, without question. This is certainly not the first time that a quality story has come from the blogosphere, and it sure won't be the last. Blogs, of course, and gaining lots of credence in the publishing world due to their immediacy and the closeness of many bloggers to the best sources.

I'd like to think this won't happen again, but if/when it does, bloggers need to stake their claim, and keep making noise. Traditional journalists need to know these things get noticed, and we have our code of behavior as well. We know who the sources are in cases like these, and that's an easy story to tell if need be.

The blogs have been quiet about the Skype story the past day or so, but I just wanted to add a post from Monday that I haven't seen referenced yet. It's from "Mr Wave Theory", and he's got some very interesting thoughts about what's behind the Skype allegations. I didn't know "Mr. Wave" until now, so I can't really comment on the strength of his views.